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Serious thoughts on Half-Life 3

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I keep hearing that HL3 won't be released, or that Valve are scared to make it, or because Valve can make money off of steam they don't need to make it. WELL, let me make a prediction:

 

"I believe that Half Life 3 will be announced around October 2017"

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Yes I am serious. There are several reasons why I believe that it might actually be announced this year.

 

(1) - By that time, Half-Life 2: Episode 2 will be having it's 10 year anniversary. What better way to honour the series than for Valve to announce the final chapter of Half-Life 2: Aftermath?

(2) - Half Life 2 took around 4-6 years to create, including that leak in the middle of it. If we are going to judge development times, it isn't unreasonable to predict that Half Life 3 would have a 10-12 year development cycle, which could place it at around a 2019-2020 release date. This might be the hardest to digest, since Gaben said that they don't like announcing things in advance, considering the hack that took place in 2002. For Valve to announce HL3 in 2017 and to have a release date in 2019-2020 is a tough pill to swallow, but stranger things have happened yet...

(3) - It has been 13 years since the release of Half Life 2, and 10 years since Episode 2. For Perspective, Prey (2005) took 12 years to create, and Duke Nukem Forever took 14 years to create. If Valve does not want to have HL3 be more infamous than DNF, 2017 would be a great time to announce their hard works (which we do know that they are working on HL3, they just need to announce and release it). Failing 2017, they would have to announce HL3 before 2022, because by then it would have passed DNF's developer hell time, and there WILL be some HELL to pay for it.

(4) - As of now, 2/3rds of Valve staff are working on VR. And they are moving buildings in September. What better time to announce their new VR game once they have moved into their brand new workplace?

(5) - Valve have also been working on Left4Dead3 for quite some time as well, which will show off Source 2 day-night-cycle technology as well as VR. Maybe an Orange Box style release of L4D3 and HL3 would be a sound decision?

(6) - Speaking of other games, as you may have seen the (rather) disappointing announcement of ARTEFACT, that DOTA 2 card game. Well from that VNN interview, we know that Valve have been working on 3 big games. This Artefact reveal may have been one, so what about the other two? Also, what better way to fix the wounds and resent towards Artefact than by announcing HL3?

EDIT - (7) - Well Well Well, Marc Laidlaw (the ex-head writer of Half Life) just revealed the plot to Episode 3, titled "Epistle 3". This is revolutionary, as it pretty much confirms that Valve would be making a Half Life 3 and not a Half-Life 2: Episode 3, seeing as they stopped making HL2:EP3 back in 2013 when they canceled the Episodic format. Also the timing of this before October 2017 is really coincidental to my predictions, as Marc would not have released this if Valve was not planning to release a HL3 in the recent time. His comments about how the "Spirit of Rebellion" is still in the "Changed Science Team" shows that Valve DOES want to make a Half Life 3. And it would HAVE to be in VR. It's the only tech that could make a revolutionary enough change in Videogame design to be impactful.

 

So yes, those are my reasons why I think HL3 will be (hopefully) announced in October 2017.

What are your thoughts on this? Do my thoughts have some logic to them, or am I preaching to a brick wall and you think none of this is plausible?

Edited by Guest

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It won't. Your optimism is cute but its clear Valve knows Half Life 2: Episode 3 or even Half Life 3 would waste too much money producing it compared to selling skins on CSGO, games on Steam and having more micro-transactions on the latest DOTA card game.

 

The old valve is dead, the employees that cared about Half Life left the company to pursue other projects, and those who stayed are making more money than they could think of, consolidating their future with their families.

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With Laidlaw finally releasing the plot for Episode 3, added by the fact that I don't play PC games as often as I used to before. I've accepted that HL3 will never happen.

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It won't. Your optimism is cute but its clear Valve knows Half Life 2: Episode 3 or even Half Life 3 would waste too much money producing it compared to selling skins on CSGO, games on Steam and having more micro-transactions on the latest DOTA card game.

 

The old valve is dead, the employees that cared about Half Life left the company to pursue other projects, and those who stayed are making more money than they could think of, consolidating their future with their families.

 

"WASTE"

Valve doesn't "WASTE" anything, and they KNOW that a HL3 would not be a "WASTE" of anything. And even if it was a "WASTE", then they could make enough profit off of micro-transactions so that it wouldn't effect them.

If anything, HL3 would bring them MORE profit instead of less. Don't see the logic in what you're saying.

 

Oh and the confirmation of HL2EP3's script being released by Marc Laidlaw PROVES that a Half-Life 3 is confirmed, because he wouldn't have released it at this time of the year if he knew he would get into hot water over it, and if they weren't planning to announce a Half Life 3 in October.

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Oh and the confirmation of HL2EP3's script being released by Marc Laidlaw PROVES that a Half-Life 3 is confirmed, because he wouldn't have released it at this time of the year if he knew he would get into hot water over it, and if they weren't planning to announce a Half Life 3 in October.

 

I think most of the evidence points to the contrary here. Marc is retired now, so most people think he's more or less a free agent, free to do as he pleases. While he relationship with Valve may still be friendly, as a creator, he may have simply wanted to finish his story for the sake of finishing it.

As for Half-Life 3, this is just my personal hopes and speculation, but I don't think it's currently under any serious production. Why do I hope it isn't under production right now? Because of my belief that every Half Life game needs to shake the industry to it's core. The first Half-Life revolutionized video games as a storytelling medium. The second, made physics objects the biggest thing since capture the flag. Half Life games HAVE to innovate, for me. Each one has to set the bar higher, if for no other reason that it's tradition. I am unaware of anything valve's got that could rock the world like the gravity gun did in 2004. Obviously, if they had something like that, it would be secret, but it seems all they have at the moment is Source 2, and a bunch of DoTA hats. I think we'll see Half-Life 3 in our lifetime, assuming you're not old. Just not yet. Development of Half-Life 3 may not be hung up on the creation of CS:GO guns. It may well be hung up waiting for someone to invent the next gravity gun, and that sounds like the kind of thing valve still works on. So I still hope.

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It's October 27th and no announcements yet. Guess we'll still have to wait for it or just accept the fact Valve has abandoned the Half-Life franchise entirely.

October 29th now. Nothing still.

Yeah, I was wrong. Still, better to be optimistic and wrong than pessimistic and right.

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