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The environmental changes of a cooked world.

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There's a lot of uncertainty going around as to what will really change on the ground. I, for one, am very interested in this. This isn't about sea level rise: we're still looking at around 1m, 2m rise by 2100; a lot will still be the same or easily walled off. By the time we're in the tens of meters, that's down this millennium and out of my purview. 

 

Here are some examples of stuff I've come across.

 

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And at the most extreme end, with little to no sources I've found, this map from Parag Khanna. He lists off a few sites and maps which I'll posit below. But if the prediction that we'll see a world 4c warmer by 2060 does come to pass, it's still a bad outcome.

 

Extreme map that I can't find a source for:

 

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Maps cited by Parag Khanna:

 

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From New Scientist; and that only led me to one document here from the "Royal Society Publishing".  That's quite a...difference. Parag is trying to sell a book I can't find nothing about, so maybe that's it. 

 

But yea, what do ya'll think?  Rubel and Kottek's estimation has a lot of Siberia opening up, but arguably little change elsewhere. The map about desertification feels right, and that's been a big hurdle since the 00s and 90s: the Sahel disappearing, aquifers drying up in the South West, the Gobi. and the steppe. The weakening of Europe and the huge drive up along the Rockies? That's something we'll feel, for sure.

 

Then comes Parag's map which I'm this close to just writing off as a fiction unless I get some data, and my bias is saying that if there is any data, it's being squished into a more recent timescale than what it presents.

 

Speaking of data, let me add some IPCC numbers I read from the...2018? 2017? report.

 

Okay, so the IPCC said: 100% certain that: less cold days, more warm days, the permafrost will decline by a third or so. The ocean will be more ocidic. No Northern Hemisphere Glacification before 3000AD. Sea level WILL rise beyond 2100; but for this century we're in the ballpark of 1-2m.

 

It's very likely,  (75+ chance of happening) that by the late 21st century (I'm taking late to be around 2066, 2075+) that the Ocean will deoxify by a few percent. There will be more warm spells, more heavy precipitation. The ocean conveyor belt will weaken but not collapse. More atmospheric CO2, methane, nitrous oxide.


It's likely (60% chance or so) that the global temperature will rise by 1.5c to 4.5c. That means the 4c warming scenario is highly probable. Okay, sure.  The subtropics will lose precipitation. Glaciers will decline. The Ozone hole will expand. More droughts.

 

It's Semi-Likely (around 50? 40?% - flip a coin) that Tropical Cyclonic Activity will intensify. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet disappears, but only above 4.5C temp increase. 

 

It's Unlikely - around 33%, my note is '1 in 3' - that Antarctica and Greenland will lose all ice by the late 21st century. That's a bit high for something so drastic, with a sea level increase of...10 to 30? metres. That's... a lot.

 

Very Unlikely - around 20%, still that's 1-in-5, too high for my tastes - that the Conveyor Belt system just...shutdowns completely.

 

It's exceptionally unlikely, still around 10%, that we'll see a 6.0C increase by the late 21st Century. 

 

General stuff is that if we reach 1.6C by the 2050s, 9-31% of all current extant species will be extinct, most reefs gone, half of wooded Tundra lost.

 

 If 2.6c by 2080, loss of 25% of all large African mammals and most tropical rainforests.

 

60% of  widespread and common plant species, and 35%% of widespread and common animal species will see habitat range shrinkage, up to a half of what they have now, by 2080.

 

20-30% of plants and animals will be subject o an increased risk of extinction if temps rise by 2.6c. If the temp rises by 4c, we're looking at the 40-70 ('flip a coin') range.

 

75% of South American aquifers depleted by 2050. This I think is important to note because, well, that affects people. That's what starts political crises and refugee movements. 


20,000 more pollution related death per 'temp rise' (1c tiers?)

 

There's an upside is that Temperate food production might increase and that's due to the climate zones shifting north. More Siberian, Canadian, North East, High European farming.

 

37% of all permaforst will disappear in a 2.6c scenario by 2100.

 

1m sea level rise will displace around 100,000,000.

 

Now, there are other reports, of the last year or so, that have gotten a huge, how should we say, doomer reaction from the populace. What's in those reports? I don't know. I think one is from the UN and hasn't been fully published yet. What was thrown around is that it's all 'worse-case scenario' is basically the scenario we're getting or gunning for, and the number '8.5' is thrown around a lot which I think is basically 'we're going to warm up by 8.5c'. In what time frame I don't know. I don't think we 'only have 12 years' to solve it or '2 years or we're doomed', but extrapolating from it all, we should at least be prepared for the heavy end of Climate Change within this century or even the stuff for 2050. And since most of us will be alive then, that's something I think we should brace for. 

 

Again, what do ya think? Sorry for the number dump.

 

 

Edited by Eshanas
addded numbers, data, notes.

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Posted (edited)

For the most part, I disagree with the cause being solely because of human actions, (what the majority of the media publicizes) but not entirely disconnected. From what I have seen and heard from actual scientists that study more than just human interactions with the environment, solar activity and other less easily quantifiable sources of the heating are a bigger contributor.

 

As for the extent, those are definitely worst case... Any semi-realistic prediction says that the chances of each of those things should be reduced by about 2/3. The most likely doomsday scenario is that the heat will increase just enough to trigger the release of the methane deposits at the bottom of the ocean. If this happens, everyone and everything on the surface of the planet will suffocate in a matter of hours. (unless you're above ~7500 feet ASL, IIRC) It will also result in basically the entire rest of the planet being engulfed in flames for several weeks/months, and destroying basically everything in a planet-wide methane fireball. Note, this is the most likely doomsday scenario, and it has a less than 15% chance of happening when given a generous helping of "worst case".

 

We really need to get off this planet, and not mess up other planets when we get there.

Edited by BTGBullseye

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8 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

For the most part, I disagree with the cause being solely because of human actions, (what the majority of the media publicizes) but not entirely disconnected. From what I have seen and heard from actual scientists that study more than just human interactions with the environment, solar activity and other less easily quantifiable sources of the heating are a bigger contributor.

Could you share those sources, because that's in contradiction to pretty much every scientific sorce I came across.

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Unfortunately they are not lasting online sources. They are direct chats with scientists working on the climate models, and I talk with them to provide them with a less conventional viewpoint so they can produce a more comprehensive model. None of the models are complete yet, so no online resources for it exist yet.

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10 hours ago, BTGBullseye said:

Unfortunately they are not lasting online sources. They are direct chats with scientists working on the climate models, and I talk with them to provide them with a less conventional viewpoint so they can produce a more comprehensive model. None of the models are complete yet, so no online resources for it exist yet.

Well, post them when they do exist. It's interesting. Until then, I'm gonna stick to evidence we do have.

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