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Sources of my 2015 prediction for oil problems

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So in one article, that's The Guardian giving a report about how the US Joint Forces are saying there's a potential for a big problem by 2015. In the other report, it's MSNBC stating that Kuwaiti scientists applied 47 different models to predict that oil will be peaking by 2014. I don't see either group as having a real agenda to create some sort of oil scare. In the case of Kuwait I think the reverse would be true.

So. This never happened. Just like the predicted peak oil crisis ten years before never happened. Or that prediction that we'd hit peak oil in the early 1970s.


Relevant article to hopefully end the thread:

The latest reckoning with reality is the end of the obsession with “peak oil,” which for years had serious people proclaiming that we were entering an era of permanent fossil fuels scarcity. It didn’t work out that way.


That’s a central lesson from this year’s dramatic fall in the price of oil, which reached $69.49 a barrel of Brent crude on Thursday from a June high of $112.12. As recently as early November, when oil hovered at $80, OPEC officials warned they would intervene to hold the price at $70. But Saudi officials conspicuously refused to support an output cut at last week’s OPEC meeting, and Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi has made clear that he’d be comfortable with lower prices.


The short-term Saudi calculation is to drive oil prices down to squeeze their geopolitical adversaries and higher-cost producers. That goes especially for their adversaries across the Persian Gulf in Iran, which depends on oil exports for over 40% of its revenues, and where the regime had designed its budget based on $100 oil.


The Saudis also hope to slow the explosive growth of U.S. production, which, thanks to the tapping of domestic shale resources through the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, has risen to some nine million barrels a day from five million in 2008. By some estimates, the price of oil needs to be as high as $90 a barrel for oil extracted from “tight” deposits such as shale, though oil market research firm IHS believes most tight oil wells have a break-even cost of between $50 and $69 dollars a barrel.


But even if the Saudi move slows U.S. drilling, the International Energy Agency forecasts that U.S. production will still surpass Saudi Arabia’s output of 9.7 million barrels a day, and overtake Russia’s 10.3 million, perhaps sometime next year. This would make America the world’s largest oil producer, which it was from the dawn of the oil age through 1974. Thanks to the fracking boom, the U.S. surpassed Russia as the world’s largest natural-gas producer in 2013.

Such doomsaying is that much more embarrassing because warnings of peak oil are nearly as old as the oil industry. In his book “The Quest,” Mr. Yergin records that in 1885 the state geologist of Pennsylvania warned that “the amazing exhibition of oil” was “a temporary and vanishing phenomenon—one which young men will live to see come to its natural end.”


Given this 130-year record of predictive failure, why does the end-of-oil myth persist?

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Interesting that you should link to a wiki article that reads like an opinion piece...

bi ti ʤi ˈbulzaɪ

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Just found out a few days ago that apparently the US just discovered a new oil deposit in Texas that is believed to be the largest in US history. 20 billion barrels of oil, and 1.6 billion quarts of natural gas worth apparently 900 billion dollars at current prices according to USA Today.




I understand Production and Resources mean two different things considering that new Refineries are actually needed to overcome peak production levels, but does anyone see this as changing anything in terms of predictions?

Long is the way; and hard, that out of Hell leads up to Light-Paradise Lost

By the power of truth, while I live, I have conquered the universe-Faust

The only absolute is that there are no absolutes, except that one

Vae Victus-Brennus

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