Iraqi civil war.

[ThePest179]

Mostly agree with you. This shows the difficulty, doesn't it?

 

Iraqi shia and Kurds will continue to bear the brunt of it. Iran will be supporting both, to some extent. Syria's Assad will continue on his own. But that will only lead to a stalemate, they will keep ISIS from expanding, at least for a while, but it won't "roll them back".

 

Without a supportive Muslim coalition the US is unlikely to do anything more than bombing an occasional car or a house "on actionable intelligence". The UK will stay out of it and the Australians? I have no idea.

 

ISIS have been heard threatening Putin with reprisals for the supplies of the Russian jets to Iraq, that may or may not lead to something...

 

Regards

 

If ISIS is "contained" (and at the rate they get volunteers from abroad and the alarming "total war" strategy they're employing, it seems unlikely to stay "contained") they still have a large car bomb and suicide bomber "industry" to use at their discretion. I thought BTG was out of it when he suggested ISIS would use aircraft in a Kamikaze style attack, but ever since ISIS took Tabqa airbase in Syria that may very well be possible (albeit with a great many difficulties, but still possible). Even if a "stalemate" occurs ISIS would still be able to trigger a large scale Sunni-Shia war and as a result, look like the "defender of Sunnis", and exponentially increase their membership.

 

ISIS is making threats against Russia? I don't expect ISIS to do much except an attack in Chechnya or Dagestan, and I don't expect Russia to do much, being busy attacking Ukraine and all.

[BTGBullseye]

I thought BTG was out of it when he suggested ISIS would use aircraft in a Kamikaze style attack, but ever since ISIS took Tabqa airbase in Syria that may very well be possible (albeit with a great many difficulties, but still possible).

Careful, you might eventually have to apologize for being wrong at some point... (if they end up actually using the aircraft for attacks that is)

[ThePest179]

I thought BTG was out of it when he suggested ISIS would use aircraft in a Kamikaze style attack, but ever since ISIS took Tabqa airbase in Syria that may very well be possible (albeit with a great many difficulties, but still possible).

Careful, you might eventually have to apologize for being wrong at some point... (if they end up actually using the aircraft for attacks that is)

 

Hey, if it happens I'll say I was wrong, but it hasn't happened yet.

[ThePest179]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29079052

 

The world turned upside down.

[Vapymid]

Yeah, funny how the centre of the Axis of Evil and the Satan State suddenly found a common language when a real threat appeared.

 

Next in line is an unofficial political truce with Assad, I think...

 

Regards

[ThePest179]

Next in line is an unofficial political truce with Assad, I think...

 

Regards

 

That I doubt. Assad is one of the largest reasons for this clusterfuck, and the WH knows.

[Vapymid]

But you cannot do anything about ISIS without suppressing them in Syria as well. The only alternative is for the US to go into Syria without Assad's agreement and the fight on two fronts there. Do you think they will do that?

 

Regards

[ThePest179]

But you cannot do anything about ISIS without suppressing them in Syria as well. The only alternative is for the US to go into Syria without Assad's agreement and the fight on two fronts there. Do you think they will do that?

 

Regards

 

No, but it is thte better option. Associating ourselves with Assad would be like supporting Hitler because he was an anti communist.

[Vapymid]

would be like supporting Hitler because he was an anti communist.

 

Well, there was plenty of that in Europe and the US before the WWII (even as he and Stalin were negotiating on their non-aggression pact. The irony of politics...).

 

Regards

[ThePest179]

Well, there was plenty of that in Europe and the US before the WWII (even as he and Stalin were negotiating on their non-aggression pact. The irony of politics...).

 

Regards

 

Except I mean officially. In any case we should talk about Syria in the Syria thread, but oh well. I won't try to stop you.

 

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/world/middleeast/destroying-isis-may-take-3-years-white-house-says.html?_r=0

 

Piss. This won't be easy.

 

EDIT: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29119258

[Vapymid]

The new government is a good sign in my opinion and it shows already the results of cooperation between the US and Iran on this issue. Let's hope it will last.

 

Regards

[ThePest179]

The new government is a good sign in my opinion and it shows already the results of cooperation between the US and Iran on this issue. Let's hope it will last.

 

Regards

 

I'm not too optimistic. Reuters is reporting quite a bit of killings and other misdeeds by Shia militias. Let's just hope.

[ThePest179]

http://en.ria.ru/military_news/20140914/192930829/United-States-Military-Advisers-Arrive-Western-Iraqi-Province-Al.html

 

Looks like I'm being steadily proved wrong. Let's hope it lasts, I don't want Iraq to turn into Yugoslavia.

[ThePest179]

Nevermind:

 

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/09/18/all_the_ayatollahs_men_shiite_militias_iran_iraq_islamic_state

[ThePest179]

http://www.iraqinews.com/iraq-war/urgent-isis-kills-300-iraqi-soldiers-chlorine-gas-attack-saqlawiyah/

 

And the horror show continues.

[ThePest179]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/02/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-hit-idUSKCN0HR0OO20141002

 

This is very, very, bad. Unconfirmed reports are streaming in that the city of Ramadi may be collapsing as we speak. If true, then this signifies the near victory for ISIS, as Ramadi is the last base of the Sons of Iraq (the only Sunni organization fighting ISIS) and is the gate to the Haditha dam in Anbar. That dam controls Bagdad's water and electricity flow. It would be a disaster of downright biblical proportions if the dam falls.

[Vapymid]

Meanwhile the valiant RAF have proudly destroyed ... a pick up truck. Oh, and two(!) more Tornadoes are being sent to Iraq - the victory is assured now!

 

Regards

[BTGBullseye]

And the USA still refuses to send troops because Obama is an ass.

[ThePest179]

And the USA still refuses to send troops because Obama is an ass.

 

I would not want to send troops in either, so before you call him an ass, think about what kind of situation we'd be inheriting there. It's already worse than 2006, and you'd still have to deal with Syria, which is hopeless. You'd have to rebuild the whole region and use force to keep the various militias from carrying out genocide/ethnic cleansing. Adding troops would be a good idea, but an absolute nightmare to sort out.

 

Anyways, looks like Ramadi didn't completely fall, but ISIS has gained a foothold in the city.

 

http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/10/islamic_state_seizes.php

 

Another beheading:

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29485405

[BTGBullseye]

I know you wouldn't want to, but that means nothing.

 

What needs to be done, needs to be done... Not doing it won't help.