Ross’s Interpretation of AI Risks
Since I had a discussion / debate on AI a few weeks ago, the tendency for the discussion on AI risks to branch out in different directions that can lose sight of the problem has been kind of bugging me, so I ended up coming up with a chart that lays out exactly how I perceive all of this. On this chart, I listed every major risk I could think of, and tried to separate them by how possible I thought they were. Much of current AI discussion I think is about risks I perceive as fantasy, because they hinge entirely upon superintelligence emerging. This chart also lays out my reasoning why I think superintelligence in AI is not going to happen.
However, since I’m not an expert, I left some gaps to fill in for anyone who disagrees with my conclusion, in case my assessment is faulty. I acknowledge I don’t fully understand the justification for saying AI is an existential risk to humanity any more than anything we are already doing without AI, so this chart should make it easier to pinpoint exactly what information I’m missing if I’m wrong.
The “Option 4” or “Counterpoints” part of the chart is specifically what I would need someone to fill in order to make the opposing argument credible and the “fantasy” part of the chart a potential reality. If someone is able to point out an essential piece of information I’m missing that makes superintelligence a likelihood, then I’d say the existential risks of AI are plausible. If they cannot, then I’m forced to conclude it’s not as well. I suspect much of the concern about AI becoming superintelligent grossly underestimates the complexity of the brain and / or consciousness itself.
Anyway, this was probably a big waste of my time, but this should clear up any confusion of where I’m coming from and hopefully help refine people’s thinking a little bit when talking about potential risks of AI. Big thanks to Laurynas Razmantas for helping me illustrate this!
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